"'4 Trillion does not exist 'and the introduction of economic stimulus measures between the two are not contradictory." UBS Investment Bank, Chairman of Dong Tao believes that China has entered a new economic stimulus policy cycle.
Feng Yu Ding, of: the Southern Weekend reporter from the bottom:
(CFP / Chart)
The new round of economic stimulus, is becoming the most popular topic.
The National Development and Reform Commission recently approved three large steel projects. An impression of the local officials, "the country has several years without a batch of large steel projects.
In addition, at least six airports, six large-scale hydropower stations, dozens of rail transit, highways, Deep Water Channel project approved in the near future. Ceased in 2011 due to the "7.23" motor car accident around the construction of high-speed rail projects, in the second quarter of 2012 in succession to return to work. Under the Chinese Academy of Engineering, Railway Tunnel, deputy chief engineer of the Mengshu say, to the end of May, the railway project lay-off return to work rate of 80%.
The Hunchun Development and Reform Commission Secretary for the recent frequent business trip to Beijing, the Jiangying Wen told the Southern Weekend reporter, several of the city, "ran for many years" and are not approved projects, such as the three works, the Hunchun Heilongjiang, North Korea and Russia highway and railway, has just been included in the Development and Reform Commission agenda, "This is an opportunity for our region".
Than 4 trillion 4000000000000
On a 4 trillion "stimulus, hold high the high playing is different from the current round of stimulus to the" fine tuning "on behalf of low-key,
4 trillion over again Along with the media widely reported, this concern quickly emerged.
In the 2008 financial crisis, the Chinese government quickly introduced a 4 trillion economic stimulus plan. Since then, the Chinese economy quickly out of the crisis, but also left its: inflation, local debt predicament and the real estate bubble, and since I suffer still lingers.
(Zhang Wanhua / Chart)
Development and Reform Commission officials quickly denied the existence of "new to the 4 trillion stimulus plan, the official stressed that the two" impossible ": can not be introduced as the end of 2008 the kind of large-scale, massive 4 trillion investment policy; impossible loosening of the real estate policy, the only pre-tune fine-tuning.
However, long before, the main macroeconomic policy tone to the "structural adjustment" in the past two years has been adjusted to "steady growth". May 19, Premier Wen Jiabao held in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, six provinces in economic analysis of the situation "," should be steady growth on a more important position. Four days later, the State Council executive meeting on the policy discourse was reaffirmed, and deploy to launch a number of the overall situation, driven by strong major projects.
But with the last round of the 4 trillion stimulus of holding high playing high, the current round of stimulus low-key and the name of "fine tuning" and did not synchronize large-scale introduction of the housing market stimulus, there is no emergency requiring local declaration new projects, but on the progress of the project approval within the planning speed.
A number of provinces, municipalities, and autonomous level NDRC official told the Southern Weekend reporter, in their Development and Reform Commission (Bureau) has recently held economic forum, to convey the above-mentioned policies and work arrangements layers. It is reported that, although the goal of the national GDP growth this year is 7.5%, but the provinces mission is to "protect eight" - GDP growth of 8%.
Support economic development, the 2012 Development and Reform Commission system does significantly speed up project approval and funding issued a progress, as of May 18, the country has reported more than two thousand projects, involving more than five hundred billion yuan of funds. Source of investment funds in the first four months, the growth rate of budgetary funds to the first quarter rose 3.8 percentage points to 28.7%, ranking the first of the various sources of funding.
The National Development and Reform Commission requires all issued around the end of June 2012 investment plan is completed, reported before the end of July 2013 to apply for the central budget investment plans. "National requirements included in those who '12th Five-Year Plan', this year must be launched as soon as possible." Jiangsu Province Development and Reform Commission, an official told the Southern Weekend reporter disclosed.
Recently, the NDRC research, including railways, highways, airports, urban roads, water supply, sewage and garbage treatment, six categories suspended in major projects due to funding problems, will be targeted to come up with a package of solutions for "multi-channel response project construction funding pressures, including the Collaborative Ministry of Finance to expedite the issuance of central behalf of local bonds, and financial institutions to reduce project construction and the cost of corporate finance policy measures.
In order to stimulate demand, the State Council executive meeting on May 16 decided to arrange 265 billion yuan of financial subsidies, start to promote energy efficiency Bluetooth Keyboard standards for household appliances. The relevant departments will soon be introduced to the car to the countryside "policies to stimulate consumption, trade, the main push the 1.3L displacement below the micro-car to enter the rural market.
At the same time, the intensity of monetary easing will be increased. NDRC sources of central and eastern provinces, the provinces will be interviewed the Governor of the Bank to discuss easing of credit, and will hold the large banks and enterprises docking activities.
Trust and Investment in Sichuan, a lament on the Southern Weekend reporter, recent months the Trust not to do business, last year's monetary tightening, businesses had to find us, but this year the bank-enterprise direct docking. "
"'4 Trillion does not exist 'and the introduction of economic stimulus measures between the two are not contradictory." UBS Investment Bank, Chairman of Dong Tao believes that China has entered a new economic stimulus policy cycle.
There is no road road
There is no second path, the critical moment in the economic downturn, private capital can not be taking over for a smooth transition before the general, the government can only personally shot boost the economy.
Iron ore pressure coal pressure to use the slowdown in consumption growth. Almost every economic benchmark and almost every macroeconomic data, are turning to the bad side, this is a new round of stimulus to the introduction of the policy of background.
China's GDP grew 8.1 percent in the first quarter, but the State Information Center released a report is expected in the second quarter GDP growth will fall to about 7.5 percent, economic growth will continue, the deceleration trend.
Worse, the national economy, consumption, investment and export this "troika" and accelerated decline, the ring data also appeared to slow down.
"From the point of view of the data, the economic downturn is very fast. Hong Hao," Bank of International Managing Director, Chief Strategy Officer believes that the export control of others, and consumption generated by any of the Troika of the most worrying is the investment.
1-4 months of 2012, investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) of 7.5592 trillion yuan, up 20.2 percent since the 2003 low.
Investment in fixed assets, mainly real estate, infrastructure and manufacturing. Investment in fixed assets accounting for more than 50 percent of the GDP growth, including real estate accounted for about 25% of the investment in fixed assets. Over the years, China's real estate investment growth remained broadly level of more than 30%. However, since the real estate regulation in 2010, almost zero growth in real estate investment, real estate investment growth depends largely on the protection of housing construction to pull.
Hung Hao "Assuming zero growth in real estate investment, GDP growth is basically reduced to 7% if the negative growth in GDP will drop 6 percent, so if the government does not have action, economic 'hard landing' is obvious." .
Dong Tao believes that the decline in investment is cyclical and structural factors of the double superposition dictates.
Cyclical factors is that with the decline in financing capacity of local debt platform, which started in late 2008 Porgy construction investment boom is gradually coming to an end. Two years of real estate investment has been in a cyclical adjustment.
Investment weak cyclical factors conceal a structural challenges began in 2009 - gradually fade out of the government investment, private capital is unwilling to defend the crown.
Since 2011, the Southern Weekend reporter interview with the bosses of private enterprises in Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Fujian and other provinces, almost always lament that "Industrial difficult", there is no power nor the ability to continue to invest.
There is no second path, in the economic downturn, private capital can not be taking over the critical moment, in order to smooth transition, the government can only personally shot boost the economy.
Beyond the macro-regulation
"Should not be too macro intervention micro regulation, this is the basic principle of market economy." Development Research Institute of Peking University, Professor Lu Feng, commented, "our set of macroeconomic regulation and control mechanisms need to move forward."
This time, under the premise of real estate established control policies the same, the important task to boost the economy again inevitably fell on the shoulders of the infrastructure construction and related industries.
Worrying is now apparent excess of the total amount and structure by credit easing and fueled by weak demand in the context of stimulating the economy, may lead to "stagflation".
Tax Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhang Bin believes that spontaneous market adjustment to the current economic downturn, "This adjustment is conducive to our economic restructuring and massive unemployment, I think there is no need to over-reaction."
"Stagflation, it means that the macro-control of the past few years, tossing back and forth, have already destroyed the normal function of market self-regulation mechanisms." A local official told the Southern Weekend said.
Lack of market-oriented tools, the government often on their own hand, industrial policy is commonly used as a tool.
"When a department of government incentives and subsidies, in fact, discriminate against other departments, undermine fair competition in the market environment is not conducive to restructuring." Bin said, "What is important is the institutional and policy dividends is to provide a level playing field market environment, rather than government money, bank water.
Even in some cases, the Government will adopt many of the non-market means, such as project approval for approval, and control "to root", real estate purchase of or exciting, extraordinary expansion or sudden tightening of credit, gate or close the IPO window, and direct intervention economy.
"Should not be too macro intervention micro regulation, this is the basic principle of market economy." Development Research Institute of Peking University, Professor Lu Feng, commented, "our set of macroeconomic regulation and control mechanisms need to move forward."
Is not of God "God."
The Jiangying Wen told the Southern Sony Parts Replacement Weekend reporter, the Hunchun polymetallic gold ore recovery project approved, he and his colleagues also ran more than three years, "Development and Reform Commission to run numerous times, sometimes the Chinese New Year are unable to return home. The project launched after the Hunchun of local fiscal revenue increased by 50%.
A local Development and Reform Commission official told the Southern Weekend reporter, subject to the assessment of local officials to GDP growth, including financial income, per capita income, unemployment rate and other indicators. The 2012 national goal is to ensure GDP growth of 7.5%, in order to complete the task, the provinces of 8%, and insurance 8.5% in cities, counties often have a Paul 9%, layers of overweight, and between cities and counties ranking, competition, and continuous compliance will be worrying career, and made everyone tired. "
Around the competition of GDP, is often transformed into contention on large projects. Have a decisive role in the decision because of a larger project is approved or not, the local GDP growth, the revenue of local governments and officials career.
The decision of life and death of large projects, the approval by the National Development and Reform Commission. Development and Reform Commission, the predecessor can be traced back to the State Planning Commission was established in 1952, which is the brain of China's planned economy. In 2003, the State Planning Commission and the Commission for Restructuring the merger reorganization of Development and Reform Commission, the macro-control department is responsible for the overall balance and guide the overall economic system reform, known as the first ministries or the State Council.
Under this system, the "run ministries for money has become the work of many local officials are the norm. In order to run the project, they are "flying trapeze, to the National Development and Reform Commission" to work, squatting corner and curb child is also commonplace.
The Jiangying Wen told the Southern Weekend reporter, Hunchun Zijin Mining polymetallic gold concentrate recovery projects approved, he and his colleagues also ran more than three years, "the NDRC run numerous times, sometimes the Chinese New Year can not go home" . The project launched after the Hunchun of local fiscal revenue increased by 50%.
没有评论:
发表评论