overflow from the Industry in the formation of huge hot money of the civilIn the context of speeding up the development mode shift, to prevent the real economy "cold" all walks of life must strive to find a new way to achieve the upgrading of industries
As of April 15, 41 in Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies disclosed in 2012 and a quarterly, many large manufacturing listed company announced the results up sharply, or even losses.
The first quarter of this year, GDP growth fell to 8.1 percent from 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, a decline of 0.8 percentage points, although higher than the annual GDP growth target of 7.5 percent this year, the callback of economic growth, while the real economy declines . NBS statistics show that 1-February, the industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a profit of 606 billion yuan, down 5.2 percent. This is the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size down for the first time since 2009.
"Cooling trend in the economy as a whole, especially the first quarter of the increase of RMB loans decreased, the release of the signal decreased by the effective demand for credit of the real economy." Wang Songqi said, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, deputy director of finance.
Fixed asset investment growth slowing, the industry impact of the real economy
From a quarterly perspective, a number of large listed manufacturing companies have recently notice the results of the first quarter of this year, up sharply or even losses, including machinery manufacturing, steel, automobiles, cement, building materials, household appliances, paper, non-ferrous metals and many other Industrial, some experts worry that China's manufacturing industry in the first half will remain uncertain.
The first quarter, fixed asset investment growth than last year, down 2.9 percentage points. In this context, bear the brunt of the machinery manufacturing industry. The bulldozers industry leading enterprises are expected by the national macro-economic control of the construction machinery market demand weakened, and this year's first quarter net profit fell 50% -100%.
April 18, the China Iron and Steel Association data show that the iron and steel enterprises' economic performance continued to decline, since entering the first industry-wide losses. Shougang last year's first quarter profit of 31.89 million yuan, while the same period this year Pre-losing 140 million -1.6 billion. This is mainly because the decline in fixed asset investment growth, deterioration of the steel market environment.
The first quarter of this year, domestic car production and sales were down 1.83 percent and 3.4 percent. An officer with the car and the environment, energy, transportation and contradictions become increasingly prominent, the National Automotive Policy is encouraged to become neutral and even restricted in some areas, the automotive industry will certainly be affected.
"The decline in performance but also the specific analysis, if it is the field of national macro-control industry to phase out the decline in performance, it is the performance of the economic structural adjustment." Zhao Xijun, vice president of Renmin University of China School of Finance analysis.
Rising costs, internal and external needs sluggish, SMEs generally felt the chill
Are the off-season of the textile industry in the first quarter of each year, but this year's off-season light was particularly surprising. Lin Aiwen, general manager of Guangzhou Wanli Textile Company, said the New Year after a period of time, they decided to leave, anyway, there is no business to do.
Lack of external demand coupled with the downturn in the domestic market, leading to a quarter of SMEs generally felt the chill. Linai Wen said that their company is doing upholstery, single significantly reduced for the past few years, different, outside the single price it lower, some single, they really can not do.
Single reduction for a few years ago they were still able to develop very quickly because of the huge domestic market. Due to national policies to encourage the increase of the rural consumer market, their business is fairly smooth. But this year is the upholstery sharp reduction in demand, the domestic market in the doldrums. Linai Wen said: "upholstery production by a great influence on the regulation of real estate, do not buy a house, how many people change the curtains "
Zhao Xijun, however, that: "real estate subject to regulation, the whole industry chain related industries could not live, this view is wrong. Each industry eventually adapt to consumer demand with people, but also by the energy environmental constraints. every aspect of upstream and downstream industries should have a reasonable size, each industry should be combined with self-development, there is a reasonable positioning.
SME financing is still difficult to improve profitability to sustained growth
Reporter survey also found that has been plagued by the difficult problem of financing for SMEs, there has been no substantive improvement in Guangdong SMEs. SME loan problem has always existed, lack of access to formal financial services, have turned to private financing. In fact, in terms of interest rates, raise interest rates on SME loans to float large commercial bank loans to SMEs are motivated, Wang Songqi that: in the second quarter can be considered moderately relaxed monetary policy, the Bank's credit indicator tube too tightly, limiting the financial support of the banks on the real economy. "
However, Zhao Xijun reminder: must beware of monetary policy easing, capital flows to the real economy, not to engage in technology, engage in innovation, but to speculation. "
Manufacturing profits fell, the exerted pressure of business, capital, profit-driven decisions is bound to flow to high return areas. This creates a paradox: on the one hand, enterprises lack equipment renewal and transformation of funds; but on the other hand, the accumulated continuously from Industrial overflow, and the formation of a large private hot money, or to enter the property and stock markets, or enter the field of private lending and related virtual economy.
Many small business owners complain that currently do Industrial too difficult, they do not want the enterprise accumulated investment in the rolling development, and more unwilling to accumulate into the hundreds of dozens of units in case of high-performance mechanical. Many business owners are looking to higher-return investment projects, easy money, enterprises, maintain a certain scale of production, orders to do, but to find enterprise OEM.
The accumulation of corporate premature overflow from a large number of the real economy, for sound economic development is not gospel. Ways to enhance the economic level of profitability of the business entity, to increase their investment interests and business interests, in order to solve the economic growth, the issue of sustainability. "Said Zhao Xijun.
The slowdown is a normal result of the regulation, the growth potential of the real economy remains
In the current economic cooling trend, and how to prevent the real economy "cold"
Slowdown in GDP growth now is the normal result of macro-control, do not worry too much late in the industrialization in China, coupled with rapid urbanization, growth of the real economy is still tremendous potential. "Economic Development Research Center of Wuhan University Vice Director Jane Xinhua said.
Wang Songqi that: the operating difficulties of the current real economy is a global problem, China's economy has always been heat intolerance to cold, long-term overcapacity and redundant construction problem in the first quarter slowdown was the result of the callback, more normal. "
"However, economic restructuring, the growth rate down, will the real economy grew some impact, market demand is no longer so strong, the number of scale is no longer so, this objective requires enterprises to change the development Apple Keyboard mode on an issue. enterprises to increase technological progress, the effort to research new products. "Jane said," The development of light industry in the current surplus, a lower level, so the need to optimize and upgrade heavy industry, such as steel, coal, cement, and the demand for railway Xinhua reduction of the highways and other infrastructure investment, demand will fall, the real economy, the industry will feel the pressure to accelerate the development of the changing way of background, all walks of life but also trying to find the new way to achieve the upgrading of industries. "
"There is no necessary link between the slowdown in economic growth and economic restructuring, economic growth, economic restructuring, the economy run more efficiently, is a long time but we must accelerate the work carried out." Said Zhao Xijun.
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