Relative to the growth rate of 8.9% of GDP in

Relative to the growth rate of 8.9% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2011, currently on the market a number of agencies is expected to believe that China's 2012 first quarter GDP is likely to continue slowing down, and also hope that the government had set up "while maintaining stability" strategy can stimulate demand and policy implementation.

March 2012 "First Financial chief economist at research showed that from 21 domestic and foreign financial institutions, chief economist forecast, the 2012 first quarter GDP growth will continue to fall, forecasting an average of 8.4 percent, lower than the last year's fourth quarter level of 8.9%.

Low GDP growth in the first quarter as early as the end of last year through the mouth of the senior government warning. At present, China has released a number of data also confirmed this. February economic data has been an overall decline in the profits of industrial enterprises have fallen sharply, new housing starts zero growth. Mizuho Securities chief economist for Greater Chen Jianguang, the urgency of short-term "stable inflation" should give way to "steady growth".

PMI data just released in April and recently released export data also show that the weak domestic and external demand. March this year, exports rose 8.9% and imports grew by 5.3 percent, the trade surplus to $ 5.3 billion. Chen Jianguang that import growth fell more in March, indicating that the trend of domestic demand remains weak. Especially in near-zero growth in processing trade imports, indicative of future exports will remain under pressure; especially after deducting price factors, the trade of the first quarter of zero real growth. So, the future decision-making will take further action, the policy pre-tune fine-tuning is imperative.

Of course, the economic growth of 8.4% still make in the main countries chasing the Chinese economy is still not a "hard landing".

But the next stage of the regulatory focus may lie in how to properly stabilize the economic growth rate nor with over-stimulation.

CICC chief economist Peng Wensheng, the current real economy is still tight financing conditions, is expected to relevant departments will be reasonable adjustments include loan-to-deposit ratio, including measures to promote monetary and credit growth. At the same time, effective fiscal deficit this year than last year significantly expanded, which will effectively expand aggregate demand.

Has announced the March CPI up slightly rebound, but the market is that the CPI rebounded, mainly due to the rise in food prices and hikes, without having to worry about the trend of higher inflation, which has to lay the foundation for future deposit reserve rate cut.

The credit data just released show that the Government appears to be gradually relaxed credit controls, but careful grasp the relaxation amplitude. In March 2012, RMB loans increased 1.01 trillion yuan, almost the sum of the first two months of this year, exceeding market expectations. Throughout the first quarter of RMB loans increased 2.46 trillion yuan, and foreign currency loans increased by $ 21.1 billion. The increase in loans to echo the government had repeatedly stressed that "to continue to support the repayment ability of the project, to prevent the funding strand breaks" attitude.

March money supply and credit, corporate short-term loans increased more medium-and long-term loans are still not show lack of business confidence and weak investment. A quarterly meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee is also particularly emphasized the steady and moderate growth should be guided to the monetary and credit, and may suggest the government to maintain a high credit increment difficult in the second quarter.

Real economic side, the majority of the market is expected that the second quarter, the economy will show a seasonal pick up, should be worthwhile for the Government to grasp the timing of introduction of the policy. The domestic market in March as a whole showed a slight recovery trend, mainly due to steel price increases and traders pull up, driven by very mild steel demand for the release, Sony Parts Replacement also shows that this round of seasonal pick up quite calm. China fixed asset investment in the future whether in the second quarter, some improvement is expected to decided to give more substantial domestic demand in China should be the external need to weak impact.

Chen Jianguang that the current Apple Keyboard policy pre-tune fine-tuning one of the key is that we must ensure that in the construction or continued construction of the project funds. This is because there is no investment demand, China's domestic demand is difficult to effectively expand. This also indicates that the excessive decline in China's future may not tolerate the growth rate of investment. Credit Pre-tune fine-tuning will be first reflected in the March increase in future policy support will continue to increase.