Sina Finance, April 12, in January and February experienced a

Sina Finance, April 12, in January and February experienced a credit appetite after central bank data show yuan of new loans in March jumped by over a million in the first quarter, new loans increased 2.46 trillion, throughout the year 30 % target. Analysis pointed out that the recent lower the deposit reserve ratio is expected to fall, but the actual structure of credit weakness in the second quarter is still down the possibility of a standard.

Credit soared to 10,100 in March

The data show that in March, RMB loans increased 1.01 trillion yuan, up by more than 332 billion yuan. Now the first two months, the new loans at more than 7000 billion.

Shenghong Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst, said on Sina Finance credit in March exceeded the market expectations, control credit in January-February, a harbinger of economic decline appears on the policy increased the increase in loans for the first quarter, lending a more adequate .

Zhao Qingming, an international financial expert also pointed out that the credit Innovation First, high in March due to a more adequate liquidity, there is no impact on lending; quarter red point factor is the main driving force of the credit-than-expected.

Target site of this year, China's annual credit 8000000000000 3:3:2:2 tempo of the first quarter, new loans 2.4 trillion, the actual day is done. Zhao Qingming believe that the second quarter of the monthly average credit should be around 800 billion, will complete the second 2.4 trillion of new loans.

Credit structure is still weak

Analysis of specific data, a quarter of non-financial corporate loans increased 1.95 trillion in long-term loans Bluetooth Keyboard increased by only 590.6 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 257.5 billion yuan.

"A structural weakness in credit: long-term loans less that the lower corporate willingness to invest, while the M1 is also relatively low magnitude of macroscopic production, total demand is relatively small. Corporate liquidity has improved." Peace Head of Securities Fixed Income, said Shi Lei.

Shenghong Qing pointed Korean Layout out that the loan structure, credit efforts to support the real economy is not very strong; short-term financing and bill financing more enterprises, more use of short-term financing to meet liquidity requirements. The M1 is only 4.4%, the activity of the real economy is not high, the release of the credit for two months before acting on the real economy.

Enterprise funds face continuation of last year's tense, is the need to short-term loans to prevent fracture, but not the massive scale of investment; society as a whole scale of financing an increase of non-loan financing costs are high. "Said Shenghong Qing .

According to a survey of Everbright Bank 1-2 months of this year, China's railway transportation investment in fixed assets continued to decline. 1-2 months of railway fixed assets investment totaled 44.4%, a decrease of 7% in traffic class. China's medium-and long-term new loans accounted for only 24%, while last year more than half.

Recent slowed down quasi-expected

Credit soared in March and ample liquidity, after the news will cut the deposit reserve ratio to cool the industry is expected will soon not drop quasi.

"The first is to restore growth in foreign exchange, and each month more than 1000 billion can be expected; In addition, the central bank intends to allow the central counting out the central ticket expires the release of liquidity in this case the mobility of water has been released, so I expected to recently is unlikely to cut the deposit reserve ratio. "Zhao Qingming, Sina Finance.

E Yongjian, a credit analyst, also said that is unlikely, due to ample liquidity, recent actions taken by the Bank of Communications did not adjust for the expected reserve ratio, the second quarter may still be down quasi.

Shenghong Qing also said that the first quarter of 2.56 trillion credit forward-looking surface of policies to maintain growth, but the credit spread to the real economy will take some time, so the need to reduce the deposit reserve ratio in order to influence corporate bonds and bills discounted interest rates and lower financing costs. (Jie Lin from Beijing)