Analysts believe that the Festival of factors led to reduce the working day, the base period factors increases the volatility of year-on-year data, import and export data show that in January inside and outside the required appetite, but should not read too much into the February data, reference should be to conduct a comprehensive analysis. Overall, a quarter of the overall foreign trade growth momentum will continue weak pattern. In addition, the trade surplus in January to record the past six months, new or enhanced appreciation of the renminbi market expectations.
February import growth will rebound
Customs data show that the export growth rate fell to 0.5 percent, the growth rate of imports decreased by 15.3% in January. As this year's Chinese New Year holiday in January, the month only 17 days, less than the same period Hot Keyboard last year four days. Accordance with international practice, combined with China's actual use of the seasonal adjustment method can remove the Spring Festival. After seasonal adjustment method to adjust the year-on-year growth rate of China's import and export, exports and imports in January were 6.2%, 10.3% and 1.5%.
SW chief macroeconomic analyst Retrospect, the import growth rate dropped to weak domestic demand than expected, but is expected to import growth will rebound in February. The decline in exports caused primarily by the Spring Festival, and the decline in external demand. The decline in imports is much larger than the decline in exports was largely export-order delivery, to stabilize the export volume to a certain extent.
Customs statistics show that in January, China's general trade exports $ 76.77 billion, an increase of 2.6%; imports $ 74.76 billion, down 12.5 percent. Exports of China's processing trade reached $ 62.64 billion, down 4 percent; imports $ 30.12 billion, down 19.9 percent.
From the chain, exports in January, Central fell 3.3% while imports decreased by 2.9%. Among this, exports ring fell last month to expand one percentage point drop in performance of the manufacturing PMI index of new export orders index in January, show the continued downturn in external demand have an impact on China's export growth. Imports chain weakening the domestic economy is still slowing down trend, with domestic demand still can not see the obvious signs of rebound, the import index in the manufacturing PMI index has the fourth consecutive month in less than 50 percent, have come down in January to 46.9 % of the low import demand is still relatively weak.
Minsheng Securities macroeconomic analyst Zhang Lei said, a quarter of China's overall foreign trade growth momentum will continue, a weak pattern, the annual foreign trade growth is expected in about 15%.
Appreciation of the renminbi expected material enhanced
Customs data show that the January trade surplus reached 27.28 billion U.S. dollars, a record of the past six months a new high. Analysts said that the trade surplus than expected increase or enhance the market expectations of RMB appreciation again.
Senior Economist of the Dell XPS Keyboard Economic Forecast Department of the State Information Center, said Qi Jingmei, a larger trade surplus in January, to achieve the goal of reducing the surplus may not be expected quickly.
Especially macro industry, macro-analyst at Essence Securities, said the January trade surplus rose worthy of attention. If the trade surplus to shift from contraction to expansion of the trend of formation, the foreign exchange liquidity and capital markets are relatively large. Overall, the yuan is still the appreciation of the channel, the annual appreciation of the RMB may be 3%.
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