Year, the domestic price near misses, showing the control of the "road map": it is necessary to control price fluctuations, but also safeguard the stable economic development, at the same time do everything possible to "pocketbook" income of the people ... speed, structure, price three Relations co-ordination, to become next year's macro-control must face the reality of the problem.
2011: Price "near misses"
2011 prices as the "roller coaster" in general, the consumer price index (CPI) rose all the way from the beginning of the year 4.9% of the monthly year-on-year increase in May, CPI rose Diego, until July year-on-year rise of 6.5% setting a 37 month high. The latest release of China's CPI rose in November dropped to 4.2 percent, a decline of more than most scholars expected the full year, prices have stabilized. "
Renmin University of China, vice president of LiuYuanChun said this round of price increases for two main reasons: First, the monetary response to financial crisis a lot of running since last year, continued to push up prices to rise; the second is the quantitative easing policy implemented by the United States, triggered a rise in international commodity prices, imported inflationary pressures can not be ignored; rigid cost of domestic labor costs lead to difficult to compress.
CPI ups and downs behind out of the "inverted V-shaped" curve, both market invisible hand role in the regulation of the "visible hand" of. "Refractory" price, once the impact of the CPI endurance. Moderate, strong regulation, price trends gradually stabilized, especially in the second half has been increasingly flat trend, prices of many products have experienced "near misses".
The price of cotton clothing are closely associated with people who, this year the trend on the contrary to most people expected: mid-February this year, prices soared to 30,000 yuan per ton super, so many people exclaimed, "cotton in the possession of needles, but then cotton suddenly collapsed, farmers miserable; September, the Interim National purchasing and storage policies "lobby", so that cotton prices gradually stabilized to keep the market stable, but also to protect the interests of the farmers.
Another example of sugar shot up from last year, this year through the national number of temporary cast Reserve to ease the market demand, this year, sugar prices stable through the period of a new source of sugar is not listed "sugar Emperor" go away.
But it is undeniable, sometimes difficulty in selling of agricultural products drop in price, sometimes for less prices go, the size of the year "phenomenon does not really solve the" pig cycle "still plaguing farmers, mastering the law of the market and to protect farmers interests of the means still appears slightly less.
The experts pointed out that, subject to many uncertainties that affect next year's inflation situation can not be too optimistic, "livelihood security" is still of the biggest challenges of the next year to stabilize prices.
Price trap "reins", the goal of a "soft landing" of
July, consumer prices began to gradually return to normal. Rapid increases in the current round of CPI "Pushing Hands", pigs, vegetables, food prices in the recent trend has changed significantly. In particular, the ring of the National Pork prices in November fell 5.3 percent, the entire food prices were down 0.8%, is rare in recent years.
Behind the numbers reflected in the regulation of the power of this year. From a lot of people worried about price as Mustang "runaway" to the prices start to stabilize in the attack of the Fist of the macro-control, for the price put on the "reins" is definitely not a moment in a day.
Zhuang Jian, senior economist of the Asian Development Bank China Office, said: "the general price level in domestic regulation and external demand to go soft under the peak in the regulation of basic achieved the expected results.
The experts pointed out that the central, and many other means of administrative orders and monetary policy, the various angles from the pressure of demand, increase supply and reduce intermediate links, the visible hand and the invisible hand of the organic staggered to achieve an appropriate degree of regulation.
- Pressure demand, tightening of monetary liquidity, raised the deposit reserve requirement ratio, interest rates, the introduction of open market operations, a series of HP Compaq Keyboard measures. In fact, the soaring price of pork, the background is caused by the currency over excess liquidity. For liquidity management since last year has not been relaxed. The central bank has twelve raised the deposit reserve ratio five times to raise interest rates, to prove safety and inflation.
- Increase supply, especially in food and agricultural products, outstanding food eight years harvest is a very important factor, the government has increased investment in agriculture, subsidies to farmers, farm and sideline circulation to clean up in the rice bag, basket increase investment in the project.
- Less links, the State Council executive meeting made it clear that convergence in order to solve the circulation of agricultural products and the cost of some large and medium-sized cities increased, the difficulty in selling to buy expensive "and other issues will be to strengthen the production and marketing focus, accelerate the construction of efficient, smooth, safe, sequence of fresh agricultural products circulation system, reduce distribution costs.
"The price to enter the down channel, showing China's economy is 'soft landing'." Political commissar, chief economist Lu, "China's macro-control this year has played a key role in the reduction of the price pressures for the healthy development of the national economy has played a good guarantee the production cost of living of the people was brought under control, this is a Macbook Accessories fundamental prerequisite for achieving the objectives of the 'soft landing'. "
The price is still "caged tiger", a key strategy for livelihood security
As pointed out by the Central Economic Work Conference, China's economic development unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable contradictions and problems are still outstanding, economic growth, downward pressure on price pressures coexist.
Chief economist Lian Ping said preliminary judge the 2012 full-year CPI increase will be in the range of 3% -3.5%, inflation will not become the main problems in the macroeconomic But the long-term perspective, to promote the rising prices of the factors still exist, such as population structure conversion led to the upgrading of the labor costs, the price reform of resource products brought the prices of resource products and the process of urbanization makes the reduction of land area and other factors, will to promote the rise of the price level.
Maintain the basic stability of the general price level to prevent the price trend rebounded important task of economic work in 2012. The regulation still faces challenges - the people for the contradiction between the "digital" and "real feel" is one of the challenges.
Zhuang Jian said that the feelings of the people to focus more on food prices, little decrease in the trend of daily necessities, electronic products, price stability is difficult to feel. Countries by the price impact of relatively large groups should have a policy of subsidies; while ensuring that the people of income growth, increased investment in social security, "If the revenue growth of GDP and CPI, people would have no worries. "
Control soaring prices at the same time, ensure that the people income growth has become another major challenge.
"Do not look at the price of pork has been the highest point in history, in fact due to rising costs, farmers comparative efficiency is not high." Shanghai large farming Bi Bo, a pig in 2008 earned 500 yuan is normal , can now earn 300 yuan has been very good; regulation can focus on cost pressures to improve the comparative effectiveness.
Wang Dan, Doctor of Economics of the Development Research Center of Shanghai Municipal People's Government, said: "China's economy is like speeding car on the highway, now turn, requires many with loose throttle, turn direction, or even need brakes." And China difficult to reverse in the short term strong investment and export-dependent, so for example, the short board in the development of SMEs, services sector growth in the economy need to be strengthened, and restructuring continued.
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