Analysts believe that the new credit in March, or about

Analysts believe that the new credit in March, or about 800 billion yuan. Credit data of the previous two months, the actual demand for loans less than the decline in the real economy, sounding the alarm

reporter Cao Bei

The trend of "roller coaster" of new lending, with the first quarter of last year compared to the first quarter of this year, the credit data, it seems closer to the regulation of ideas of the regulators.

"From the central bank's point of view, more credit, showing a steady growth. Instead of like last year, only the credit data on more than 1 trillion in January, plummeted in February. Each quarter, each quarter month to maintain a more even growth between the desired state of the regulators. "

Tan Hui, an analyst said in an interview with the Securities Daily "reporters," the first two months of data revealing the downside risks to the real economy, worthy of attention. "

In early January of this year, most banks have been quietly return to the benchmark interest rate. February, there are already some banks in the individual property to 10% or 9.5% discount. Industry insiders estimate that the first mortgage of 8.5 fold to reproduce the market.

February new credit "arouses fear."

The central bank recently announced February credit data show that in February new loans of 710.7 billion yuan, 738.1 billion yuan in January, a decrease of $ 27.4 billion, still below market expectations. Prior to the widely expected increase of RMB loans in February will be about 750 billion yuan. More caused by market concerns, which bills financing reached 110.6 billion yuan, compared with last month, 80 million new places, the rapid rate of increase. The new bill financing accounted for about 15% the proportion of new loans.

Most analysts believe that this shows the actual needs of enterprises weakened, reflecting the real economy to fall.

The National People's Congress, the NPC Financial and Economic Committee, vice chairman, Wu pointed out that two months Bluetooth Keyboard before the financial institutions, loan growth is slowing down, its important reason is that with the slowdown in economic growth, decline in market demand for loans.

Financial expert on said Zhao Qingming, new loans are still too few in February mainly because liquidity is relatively tight throughout February on the 24th cut the deposit and prospective business days less, too late to put the economy continued to show a downward trend, the corporate demand for credit relative weak, mortgage banks are more cautious.

Shenghong Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst, pointed out that the bill financing the short-term borrowing of funds, flexible operation, used for 2-3 months of temporary cash flow. A year and more credit to be applied to add, to build ongoing projects in the market that substantive loans. Net of financing instruments, you can find effective new loans in February was down by 130 billion yuan over the previous month. Shenghong Qing that this indicates that the actual demand for loans is weakening.

March loan or remained stable

"In the past two months, if not unexpected, then, in March, the new credit remains basically the same level with the first two months is a high probability event. Factors, combined with the project started in March is expected in 8000 billion yuan, "said Tan Hui.

Said Zhao Qingming, our full-year lending remains 3:3:2:2 rhythm, which means that the target of 8 trillion yuan to calculate the first quarter to 2.4 trillion yuan of new loans, while the first two months plus up only 1.45 trillion yuan. March new loans should be about 1 trillion yuan.

Previously, the industry believes that the target of 2.4 trillion yuan of new loans in accordance with the first quarter, the new credit in March to nearly a trillion or so.

Tan Hui said, on the one hand, from the current situation, real estate loans will not have grown substantially, and even real estate development loans of many banks have suffered negative growth. Individual housing loans with the decline in sales but not much of a breakthrough. On the other hand, the clean-up of the loans of the local platform, the platform for the loan, there have been negative growth. Therefore, in March of credit will not have a major breakthrough.

Mortgage lending or "came back"

"The central bank at the beginning of the year 'to meet household demand for loans first time home buyers' requirements, in the case of lack of demand for credit, banks are likely to re-mortgage lending rate." Tan Hui told reporters.

The central bank responsible person has said, the central bank to encourage the various financial institutions weigh the pricing between the central bank's benchmark interest rate and the lower limit of the prime rate on the first set of ordinary commodity housing loans, according to the borrower's financial situation.

Previously, the reporter told the mortgage market were a number of surveys. Late last year, the banks mortgage interest rates basically generally go up 5% -10%. In addition to individual banks, mortgage interest rates are still up 10% this year in early January, the number of banks have been quietly return to the prospective interest rates. February, there are already some banks in the individual property to 10% or 9.5% discount, the vast majority of banks still maintain the benchmark interest rate.

"For developers and individual property, is indeed a preferential activity, so if you purchased the estate of our bank is the designated bank will be able to enjoy the discount, but if this is not no such concessions." A Stock Bank loan Ministry salesman told reporters.

Recent media reports, gloves mortgage in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Suzhou and other places have different levels of benefits, the minimum to 10% off. Industry insiders estimate that the first mortgage of 8.5 fold to reproduce the market.