The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in January-February

The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in January-February year-on-year decline means that a quarter of the economy will continue to dip, but market expectations of economic growth is expected in the second quarter of stabilization and recovery.

National Bureau of Statistics data released yesterday showed that 1-2 months of this year, the enterprises above designated size industrial enterprises realized a profit of 606 billion yuan, down 5.2 percent. Among them, the state-owned enterprises profit fell 19.7 percent. From the industry perspective, upstream mining and quarrying, downstream subsistence Manufacturing industry growth rate is relatively stable, the midstream industry is facing two squeeze profit growth fell more, such as steel, chemicals, communications, computers, etc..

This is the profits of industrial enterprises is the first negative growth since November 2009. Analysts believe that profits of negative growth is directly related to the pairs fall and the rate of economic growth, price levels. Since last year, economic growth for four consecutive quarters of decline, and into 2012, the CPI began to come down significantly.

Analysts pointed out that the profits of industrial enterprises in the context of the national initiative to reduce the economic growth target, the next few months will continue to be negative growth in the second quarter is expected to bottom out. Generally speaking, corporate profit growth will lag behind the economic growth cycle, so the market is generally believed that low of a quarter or the year of economic growth, the economy is expected to stabilize in the second quarter rebound.

Strategic Development Department senior economist Zhou Jingtong the first quarter is likely the trough of the current adjustment cycle in China's economy is expected GDP growth of about 8.2 percent, down 1.5 percentage points over the Fujitsu Lifebook Keyboard previous year, 0.7 percentage points lower than the fourth quarter of last year. The second quarter GDP growth by about 8.4 percent, down 1.1 percentage points Dell Studio Keyboard over the same period last year, but rebounded slightly by 0.2 percentage points over the first quarter of this year.

The chief economist Lu political commissar also think that the first quarter of the economy continues to bottom to stabilize in the second quarter will likely begin to rebound slightly. Lu, political commissar of the first quarter GDP growth dropped to 8.4% to 8.8%, the median interval 8.6% is expected to slowdown of 0.3 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year.

That corresponds with the economic rebound, monetary policy is likely to continue to fine-tune. Zhou Jingtong is expected that the deposit reserve ratio will continue to have more than one down in the first half of this year. Lu political commissar is expected to meet normal market liquidity demand in April, still down a statutory deposit reserve ratio.