April 9, according to March, the country's industrial producer prices

April 9, according to March, the country's industrial producer prices (PPI) fell 0.3%, rose 0.3 percent, which is the reproduction of negative growth in PPI since November 2009, and hit a 28 month low.

At the same time, the Coal Association released data show that 838 million tons of coal production for the first quarter of this year, an increase of 5.8%, lower by 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year; railway cumulative shipment of coal 594 million tons, an increase of 6.1% 6.5 percentage points lower than last year.

Coal Association has not published a quarter of the coal consumption data, but stressed that "the decline in growth rate of steel, electricity, cement and other industries of coal demand growth down.

Domestic industrial growth slowing, falling profits, triggering concerns about the macroeconomic stagflation.

Fan Jianping, chief economist and director of the Economic Forecast Department of the State Information Center, told reporters that the current stage of economic development in the downstream process, but has been a policy tightening, the transition to the enterprise of spontaneous contraction. Companies started to inventory to capacity, so that the prices of industrial products.

In the first two months of this year, above-scale industrial added value grew by 11.4 percent, down 1.4 percentage points compared to December 2011; industrial enterprises realized a profit of 606 billion yuan, down 5.2 percent, while the same period last year, an increase of 34.3%.

Industrial economic downturn is most apparent in the field of coal, electricity and other resources. The reporter in contact with a number of coal enterprises who are not optimistic about this year's coal market situation.

Wang Xianzheng, president of the China Coal Industry Association, said April 8 coal by multiple factors of the global financial crisis, debt crisis in Europe since the fourth quarter of last year, China's economic growth down significantly, the declining growth rate of the coal market demand. market in the supply and demand balance in the relatively relaxed structural excess performance. "

According to the preliminary estimates of industry bodies, coal consumption in January-February this year, about 560 million tons, up only 5% of a slight increase. During the same period, the production of thermal power generating capacity, pig iron, cement and other products year-on-year Korean Layout increase of 6.8%, 3.2%, 4.8%, respectively, 4.2,0.5 and 2.2 percentage points lower growth rate than in December last year.

The lack of demand for coal stocks have also high. Coal Association data show that as of the end of March, the national coal inventory at 223 million tons for 10 months does not move. Which, 50 million tons of coal enterprises inventories, end of last month, a decrease of 2 million tons, down 3.8 percent; key power enterprises Cunmei 76.68 million tons, an increase of 5.47 million tons more than in early March, the coal storage available 19 days, an increase of 6 days.

Supply and demand under the influence of the coal price of 100 yuan / ton, the significant downturn in the six months. Bohai Rim coal price index shows, Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal steam coal market price in mid-November last year to 860 yuan / ton, down to about mid-March this year, 760 yuan / ton.

Wang Xianzheng analysis of the second quarter of this year, China's coal supply and demand will continue to maintain the overall balance of the relatively relaxed posture.

In this market context, the coal industry is clearly stated, "to establish long-term and stable strategic partnership" with the power plants, steel mills and other large users. This position does not appear for many years, may indicate the Coal prevail in the market will change.

Parallel with the coal demand weakness is a decline in electricity consumption. The CEC released data show that January-February, social power 7497 kilowatt hours, the growth rate by 5.7 percentage points lower than the same period. Industrial consumption of 522.6 billion kwh, the growth rate lower than the growth in electricity consumption of the whole society. Four high energy-consuming industries, building materials and iron and steel smelting industry, electricity consumption fell by 7.3% and 6.2%.

However, Fan Jianping, at this stage of industrial production slump, but the domestic PPI fell sharply will not last. Mainly affected by two factors, First international commodity prices are still in a rising channel, not all the way down; is the national policy fine-tuning, pre-stressed and the enterprise itself to adjust the economy back up space.

China International Economic and Exchange Center Advisory Research Vice Minister Wang Jun said, down steadily so that in the domestic economic slowdown in growth of industrial production, economic growth can achieve a soft landing in the macro-control. Expected first quarter GDP growth rate of 8.3% -8.4 % higher than the 7.5 percent annual economic growth target, stagflation will not appear. "