Also part of the economic leading indicators of growth rebound. CFLP data show that the first three months of the year, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, 51.0% and 53.1%, showing the trend of increased month by month. Financial data, the central bank announced in February the M1 and M2, year-on-year growth weak rebound, companies generally reflect the previously tight credit situation does not continue to increase.
Analysts believe that, and compared to the previous two months, economic indicators in March rebound in growth rate, but the intensity is not obvious. Under the influence of the first quarter, GDP growth is expected to hit a nearly two-year low.
National Development and Reform Commission Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the recent Boao Forum in Hainan, according to preliminary data from research institutions, a quarter of China's GDP growth by about 8.4%, the CPI rose about 3.5 percent.
Goldman Sachs economists Yu Song, a quarter of GDP growth is projected at 8.5 percent, slowed down by 0.4 percentage points than the fourth quarter of last year. Scale industrial added value year on year increase of 11.9 percent in March, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 15.4% year-on-year 22.7 percent the month growth rate of investment in fixed assets. By the monetary easing in promoting growth of economic indicators in March, more than two months before the rebound.
CICC chief economist Peng Wensheng, the first quarter GDP is expected an increase of 8.5%, the chain growth rate from 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter of last year dropped to 1.6 percent.
On the price front, after the Spring Festival, vegetables, refined oil, consumer prices have risen to a certain extent, this increased inflation expectations. But from the most recent period, the majority of the price of vegetables has decreased to some extent, grain, pork and other food prices continue to stabilize, the international crude oil prices did not break the February highs copies of these factors means that inflation in the short term comeback the risk is not large.
The fourth quarter of last year, China's CPI rose 4.6% to 3.8% in January-February this year. Analysts believe that demand downward, driven by the first quarter CPI rose less than the fourth quarter of Hot Keyboard last year, there will be no suspense. The March CPI increase may be located between 3% -3.5%.
Weak investment and consumption growth
From the demand point of view, the weakness of negative growth in the growth rate of investment in infrastructure, housing consumption, economic growth downstream.
Investment in fixed assets investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, investment, real estate investment can be divided into three parts. From January to February, the three components of year-on-year growth of -1.5%, 24.7% and 27.8%. "The current real estate investment continues to maintain steady and rapid growth, the manufacturing sector investment growth is stable and little decrease, while the negative growth of investment in infrastructure investment overall growth rate down." The State Council Development Research Center, deputy director Liu Shijin think so.
Counsellors' Office of the State Council Research Fellow Yao believes that investment in infrastructure investments in the past is usually the highest growth rate over the years there have been no negative growth, the investment growth rate down will be the overall economic downturn impact.
Growth rate of consumer goods, housing as well as gold and silver down, drag down the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods. National Bureau of Statistics data show that 1-February, the growth of household appliances and audiovisual equipment, furniture, construction and decoration materials, such as live class retail products were -2.9%, 25%, 25.3%, compared to December last year, slowing down 24.5 , 14.2 and 4.8 percentage points; car consumption growth of 12.7%, and December last year compared to a slight rebound in car production in the first two months the growth rate of -1.8%; gold and silver jewelry retail growth of 19.1% over last year slowdown of 16.5 percentage points in December.
The research report released by the Great Wall Securities believes that Korean Layout the second quarter of infrastructure projects, especially railway project started efforts to gradually increase overall investment in infrastructure, growth is expected to stabilization and recovery. At the same time, the central bank may implement asymmetric cut interest rates and lowered deposit reserve ratio, the improvement of the liquidity situation will drive the growth in consumption of durable goods, and to stimulate enterprises to long-term investment to accelerate.
China's export growth, external demand its January-February compared to last year continue to fall. But some experts pointed out that the major economies, the recovery situation better than expected. Zhang Yuyan, director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences World Economics and Politics Institute, the risk of the debt crisis in Europe has been greatly reduced this year, Europe's overall economic growth is slow, economic decline may be lower than expected.
Policy pre-tune fine-tune the open space
Little economic demand continues to fall, inflation rebound in the short-term pressure, the space and the necessity of pre-tune fine-tuning of macro policies has emerged.
Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out recently in the Guangxi, Fujian, research the economic operation of the pre-tune fine-tuning measures, as soon as possible according to the changing situation at the same time good policy to prepare to leave the appropriate policy space. Accelerate the implementation of structural tax cuts and other policies that have been promulgated, and continue to improve. Unswervingly expand consumer demand, to maintain an appropriate scale of investment, and improve investment quality and efficiency to ensure that the capital needs of major national under construction in ongoing projects.
Xu Gao, chief macroeconomic analyst believes that macroeconomic policy needs on the demand side, particularly on the investment in infrastructure development effort is expected in the second quarter there will be further policy relaxation, which will promote economic growth bottoming out.
Wensheng Peng believes that the current real economy is still tight financing conditions is expected that relevant departments will be reasonable adjustments include loan-deposit ratio, the proportion of supervision, to promote monetary and credit growth. The same time, effective fiscal deficit this year than last year significantly expanded, which will demand an expansionary effect.
Investment in fixed assets, the China Securities Journal reporter learned from the National Development and Reform Commission, the 2012 central budget, the scale of investment of 402.6 billion yuan, and tilted to the people's livelihood areas and livelihood projects. Specifically, the key support of affordable housing projects, the "three rural health and other social undertakings, and other essential infrastructure in the field of construction, increase the field of water conservancy, education, culture, Xinjiang, Tibet, and four provinces of Tibetan development input to continue to support major infrastructure construction, energy conservation, environmental protection and ecological construction, independent innovation and strategic development of new industries, revitalization of key industries and technological transformation, and the central-level construction and public security, the Secretary for infrastructure construction.
The external demand, Vice Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan said recently that in order to maintain the stability of the foreign trade policy, the continuity, the Commerce Department in conjunction with the relevant departments to study relevant policies and measures. To maintain the stability of the export tax rebate policy to increase export tax rebates. Guide enterprises to take active measures to deal with exchange rate fluctuations, and actively carry out the work of the cross-border settlement in RMB to expand the list of pilot enterprises of export trade in services. Improve the trade finance business differentiated regulatory policies to support the commercial banks to increase the support of small and micro enterprises, increase the level of service to small micro-enterprises to improve the coverage of export credit insurance, small micro-enterprise. Speed up the processing trade approval, to guide the processing trade to extend the industrial chain, and continue to fulfill the commitment to zero tariffs for LDCs.
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