Information release schedule according to the National Bureau of Statistics, a quarterly macroeconomic data will be released this Friday (April 13), in which gross domestic product (GDP) data as to reflect the start of the annual economic indicators of concern. Many experts predict that the weakened due to the economic growth momentum in the first quarter GDP grew 8.4% compared with 2011 fourth quarter to 8.9 percent growth continued to slow.
CICC chief economist Peng Wensheng said, in January and Samsung Laptop Keyboard February data show weak economic growth, HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) index also dropped significantly in March. Expected in the first quarter GDP growth may be reduced to about 8.5% lower than the previously expected 8.7%. The steady growth of macro policy will adjust the structure to tilt in the next two quarters, the total counter-cyclical operation led growth soft landing.
Goldman Sachs economists Yu Song is expected in the first quarter GDP growth was 8.5 percent, slowed down by 0.4 percentage points than the fourth quarter of last year. Scale industrial added value in March an increase of 11.9 percent, an increase of 15.4 percent of total retail sales of consumer goods, investment in fixed assets for the current month growth rate of 22.7%. Driven by the monetary easing, the growth rate of China's economic indicators in March compared Bluetooth Keyboard to the previous two months rebound.
SW chief macro analyst Retrospect, one-quarter economic growth is expected to remain at about 8.4 percent over last year's fourth quarter fell slightly. The economic slowdown is mainly because of weak demand, lack of external demand, domestic demand is limited.
China International Economic and Exchange Center Advisory Research Vice Minister Wang Jun for a quarter of GDP growth is relatively pessimistic, he expects year-on-year growth rate will reach 8.3 percent. "Whether it's the drop rate of industrial added value of the investment and foreign trade, in the first quarter are not very optimistic."
But industry experts believe that China's economy will be steady growth, a soft landing. Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the National Development and Reform Commission economic center, said that the Chinese economy will not be a hard landing. As long as real estate investment stable, small business and export growth to maintain the basic stability of the Chinese economy can maintain a growth rate of 8% to 8.5%.
Although industry experts do not worry about the Chinese economic hard landing, but the face of financial pressure faced by SMEs, the plight of the real economy, weak domestic demand, policy, or to pre-tune fine-tuning, lower the deposit reserve rate is expected to heat up significantly.
Zhu Baoliang said-than-expected price increases, control prices can not be taken lightly, the loosening of monetary policy will be more cautious and look from the current employment situation is also relatively stable, the overall analysis of the pre-tune fine-tuning of a quarter of China's economic situation is acceptable, monetary policy may reflect an increase in the credit, while the need to lower the deposit reserve ratio.
Wensheng Peng believes that the current real economy is still tight financing conditions, is expected to relevant departments will be reasonable adjustments include loan-to-deposit ratio, including measures to promote monetary and credit growth. At the same time, effective fiscal deficit this year than last year significantly expanded, which will effectively expand aggregate demand.
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