Endogenous growth potential
In the first quarter of data before the release of a lot of market analysis have foreseen the fall of economic growth, 8.1 percent of the final, though slightly below market expectations, but it is not a low growth rate.
Moreover, some detailed data show that the economy in the second quarter of the possibility of a rebound.
The first is based on industrial production, there have been quarterly pick up signs. A quarter of average daily generating capacity of 12.6 billion kwh, an increase of 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. Average daily crude steel output of 1.91 million tons, up 12.4 percent from the average daily production of the fourth quarter of last year.
The second basis "to the inventory adjustment is expected to step into the end.
Since the fourth quarter of last year, China has begun to inventory adjustment process generally lasts six months in accordance with the inventory adjustment cycle law, business inventory investment is expected to restore the second quarter, but also to ensure the investment solid growth.
The third is based on sound investment, only to remain stable to maintain a high growth. This can be understood as the three features, one investment is very sound. A quarter of China's investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) of 4.7865 trillion yuan, year-on-year nominal growth of 20.9%, although the decline remains far too high. Among them, the negative growth of investment in infrastructure, investment in tertiary industry growth rate of atrophy by the withdrawal of government projects, the impact of real estate regulation and active control, but reflect economic endogenous growth of manufacturing investment up 24.8%, Laptop Cleaning one with the real estate economic engine for the automotive industry investment growth up to 38.6%.
The second characteristic is the huge investment potential. This year is the 12th Five Year Plan "in its second year, some major projects have started, steady progress in the protection of housing construction, private capital activity is still relatively high, this year's investment may also maintain a rapid growth in the first quarter investment in new projects, the growth rate reached 23.0 percent too high.
A third characteristic of good corporate self-financing hedge the credit tightening. The first quarter of the investment funds available in part from domestic loans due to credit tightening growth rate of only 5%, but the growth rate of corporate self-financing up to 26.7%. The bond market broke out in the first quarter show that the capital side is still relatively abundant.
Fine-tuning or does not involve a monetary policy shift
As the first quarter of Spanish Layout the economy is mainly the result of government initiative to control the market is also concerned about the Government's next phase of policy trends.
While the data released on Friday, Premier Wen Jiabao chaired a State Council executive meeting on the 13th. The meeting made the focus of the next phase of deployment, that continue to strengthen and improve macro-control. Strengthen the management of aggregate demand, timely pre-tune fine-tuning to further improve the policy relevance, flexibility and forward-looking. Monetary policy should take into account the steady and rapid economic development, and maintaining price stability and preventing financial risks, pay more attention to meet the reasonable capital needs of real economic development.
Meetings "Strengthening policy reserves, reserve policy space" formulation also attracted the attention of the market, this may appear to the government to judge the economy is still strong, and not blindly again spend the stimulus, but to adopt wait and see, and proactive attitude .
SASAC research center researcher Hu later told reporters that such a statement means that the use of macro-control policies in accordance with the principle of last year's Central Economic Work Conference, "while maintaining stability", but also from the current situation, probably should not turn to the big move , but mainly in order to strengthen the macroeconomic policy of the preset tuning.
The chief macroeconomic analyst Shenghong Qing, strengthen policy reserves, reserve policy space representation in terms of monetary policy, and may reflect the short-term deposit reserve ratio by the time window will be pushed back.
The future policy of pre-reconcile the characteristics of fine-tuning may be fully apparent targeted and structural control. On the one hand, the government has declared on many occasions the view that the operating difficulties of the first quarter of SMEs increased. In addition to ensuring the funding requirements of the national major construction ongoing projects in the future, the repayment ability of local projects continue to be supported to prevent the funding strand breaks, Shenghong Qing believes that the focus of monetary policy will be placed on the credit, the increase of credit, favor of the cash-strapped small and medium enterprises.
On the other hand, structural adjustment will never relax. The meeting stressed that adhering to the real estate control policy without wavering, never let the regulation appear repeatedly.
Other structural reforms, the government may accelerate the pace. Hu later told reporters recently, China's financial reform has taken the pace of a State Council executive meeting decided to establish a finance comprehensive reform pilot area of Wenzhou City, a Shenzhen passed "to improve financial services to support the real economy" series supporting file in the current economic environment, should also continue to increase the pace of structural adjustment, promote early economic transformation, to lay a solid foundation for long-term sustainable growth of economy.
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