With the various ministries being released economic data, the "gray" has almost become the theme of the first quarter of this year's economy. 7.5% growth rate target of the Government Work Report "meaning China's economic wheel of the 2012 shallow water navigation, the same opinion, before March, 8.1 percent GDP growth rate should have been a safe area, but so accustomed to people of high-speed navigation produce the panic that threatens to run aground.
Canton Fair, many foreign manufacturers orders were cut corporate profits slip into negative growth year-on-year interval, a large number of site lost 
past the noise, the era of the "financial crisis" in the first quarter once again feel the financial crisis, the initial cold.
"Daily Economic News" reporter found behind these phenomena, many only stay in the past start jumping in the deep-seated crisis of the people at the mouth of bleak economic data on foreign trade enterprises - rely on labor-intensive fortune, I am afraid with this patterns begin to say goodbye; four trillion bailout plan caused by economic ups and downs of being confirmed; enhanced endogenous power in China's economy against the risk ability to improve self-confidence is challenged.
Spring until when The second quarter monetary policy to accelerate the loose and no longer seems the topic of most concern, the real people waiting to no avail where the demand for Chinese-made Government-led investment in infrastructure, whether mushroomed started back to work. The dark background of macro-control art is increasingly the key to tax cuts, steady investment, liberalization and private investment restrictions preset fine-tune the combination of boxing, will allow China's steady economic completed by the rapid growth in low-speed growth of excessive structural change
/ Data /
Gloomy economic data: slowdown looming transition pressure
Recently, a number of ministries being released one-quarter economic performance indicators from all levels to reflect the economic situation. Not surprisingly, the indicators reflect the signal was not active in the economic slowdown trend is established, pressure brought about by the structural adjustment looming.
From the National Bureau of Statistics data show that in the first quarter of this year, 107 995 billion yuan of gross domestic product (GDP), according to constant prices, an increase of 8.1%. Industries, the first industry was 692.2 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8%; the secondary industry was 5.1451 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.1%; the tertiary industry was 4.9622 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.5%. This growth rate compared with 9.7 percent in the first quarter of last year, down 1.5 percentage points this year GDP growth rate of five consecutive quarterly decline. Even compared to the previous forecast of 8.4 percent to 8.5 percent growth rate and institutional, have shrunk significantly.
"Daily Economic News" reporter found around the data seems to better reflect this reality. From the local GDP data have been published, only three places in Henan, Guizhou and Ningxia in the first quarter economic growth over the same period last year, the remaining provinces with varying degrees of decline. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong in the first quarter GDP growth of 7%, 7%, 7.2%, 8.1% in the same period last year, 8.5%, 10.5%, the decline is obvious.
National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Yun pointed out that, generally speaking, one-quarter economic growth rate has dropped slightly, but still at a reasonable modest growth interval. Of course, it should be noted that there are some outstanding contradictions and problems in economic operation, you need to pay great attention to, mainly to stabilize the export difficult, some enterprises, especially small and micro-enterprises increased operating difficulties, the effectiveness of some industries decline, price pressures remain and so on.
Sheng Yun said non-empty, the data followed by a release from the breakdown of the economic indicators and other ministries, the current economic operation of the pressure really is not small.
Investment in fixed assets in the first quarter, investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) of 4.7865 trillion yuan, a year-on-year nominal growth of 20.9% (after deducting price factors, the actual increase of 18.2%), higher than the first quarter of last year, down 4.7 percentage points over the previous year year, down 2.9 percentage points.
The industrial added value in the first quarter of this year, above-scale industrial output growth rate of only 11.6% compared with last quarter, down 2.8 percentage points. The eastern provinces of decline is particularly evident.
Fixed asset investment and industrial added value growth fell from the total electricity consumption and corporate profits can be confirmed. A quarter of the whole society of the country electricity consumption of 1.1655 trillion kwh, up 6.8 percent, down 5.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, 4.3 percentage points lower in the fourth quarter over the previous year. The profits from the enterprise point of view, the first two months of this year, above-scale industrial enterprises realized profits of 606 billion yuan, down 5.2 percent. Since 2000, profits of industrial enterprises in 2002 and 2009, only seen negative growth.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, in March of this year, the country's industrial producer prices (PPI) since November 2009 after the recurrence of negative growth, and hit a record low of 28 months.
The lack of business investment will also exacerbated by the bleak situation of the industrial production. From the central bank data show that the first quarter of this year, China's industrial term loans increased by 153.2 billion yuan, up by 69.7 billion yuan or less, a decline of 31%. Observation of such data this year, a quarter of China's economic picture can be described as a gray. "Troika" in stimulating the economy, consumption and foreign trade data is also not optimistic. Consumer level, a quarter of China's total retail sales of 4.9319 trillion yuan, year-on-year nominal growth of 14.8 percent after deducting price factors, the actual increase of 10.9%, down 1.5 percent from the first quarter of last year.
The total import and export decline was also very obvious. According to customs statistics, in 2012 a quarter of the national import and export value reached $ 859.37 billion, an increase of 7.3 percent, compared with 29.5 percent growth rate in the same period last year, down 22.2 percentage points. Among this, exports increased by 7.6% while imports increased by 6.9 percent, accelerating decline of 18.9 percent and 25.7 percent respectively over the same period last year.
The chief economist Lu, political commissar of the view that the main cause of the rapid decline in a quarter of China's export growth is not outside the deterioration of the environment, but the RMB real effective exchange rate appreciation.
/ Reason /
Behind the data: the visible hand and the interaction of the economic cycle
The first quarter seems to be the storm's eye, almost all the factors have to drag the economy down the fast-moving. The report illustrates that the economic slowdown can be attributed to superposition of long-term downward trend and short-term weakening demand factors. Report that, in the Lewis turning point close to the dividends of globalization subsided, and environmental constraints to increase after the advantage of weakened, a combination of factors, China's economic growth rate has decreased significantly, the growth target this year down to 7.5% has been reflected in a trend. Troika in the first quarter of deceleration, a direct result of the economic slowdown.
Which both weak first quarter, investment and exports, gross capital formation dropped significantly, only 33.4% of the pull of 2.7 percentage points to GDP growth. Net exports not only the continuation of the first four quarters of negative contribution to the situation, and -9.4% of the contribution rate to the lowest point in nearly more than two years.
Wang Jian, Secretary-General of China Society of Macroeconomics, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, Chinese investment in the first quarter of this year has been a marked "lean". The early four trillion stimulus plan have been implemented, follow-up project and no follow-up, noteworthy is that four trillion investment is no demand for investment, and stimulate new demand, but the cause of overcapacity situation.
Interestingly, the fixed asset investment, industrial added value and generating capacity data can prove to capital formation, the contribution rate and then down the facts of economic growth, but this is among the data changes in amplitude but deviated from the Department. Although the capital formation to GDP in the first quarter, pulling only 2.7%, However, a quarter of fixed-asset investment growth rate of 18.2%. Although the consumption boost GDP to more than 6 percentage points of growth, but its growth rate was only 10.9%.
Ping An Securities, said in the explain this deviation from the fundamental reason is the huge difference of the three expenditure approach, GDP accounting needs and the three major demands of statistical indicators in the statistical meaning. Final consumption includes not only the consumer, including government consumption; gross capital formation includes not only the gross fixed capital formation, including changes in inventories. Report that the enterprises to inventory behavior led to stock up sharply down, which more than offset the gross fixed capital formation to total actual contribution to the growth rate of capital formation, capital formation, the total actual growth rate of only single-digit, much lower than the investment in fixed assets actual growth rate. In other words, the stock business to go and formed on the GDP growth, a larger negative pull.
Chief Economist of the Economic Forecast Department of the State Information Center Zhu Baoliang told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, to the inventory, the enterprise will slow down production, to digest the import of raw materials in the high inflation in the second half of last year, driving down profits for heavy industry demand and supply will adversely affect.
Compared to the deep-rooted relationship between industrial enterprises and investment, foreign demand market is rapidly cooling the more apparent. Commerce Department spokesman, said Shen Danyang, weak U.S. economic growth, the debt crisis in Europe out of the woods, while the European Union and the United States is China's first and second largest export market, the two economies, the economic downturn on our export The impact can be imagined.
Slowdown in external demand and internal pressure to the inventory, corporate demand for raw materials or funds greatly diminished.
Wang said that last year, the money growth rate by 3.8 percentage points lower than the GDP growth rate in the first quarter by 2.1 percentage points higher, new loans more than 1 trillion yuan in March, which has turned loose monetary conditions, but The economy is accelerating decline. He said the economic downturn is not only about out of last year, monetary conditions tight exogenous reasons, but for the overproduction of endogenous reasons. "This year undiscounted first quarter of bank acceptance bills of exchange up less than the increase of 543 billion yuan, of which more than 50 percent in March. Acceptances loans closer to the reality of production and operation activities, so the discounted acceptances reduced demand enterprises are more instructions to reduce the demand for bank funds by weaker production and business activities. "
Market mechanism is already warning of macroeconomic regulation and control whether the reaction After combing is not difficult to find the "visible hand" is not without foundation as the first quarter, not only in February this year, down a deposit reserve ratio, but also frequently sounded the horn of small micro-enterprise tax and to encourage private investment.
Nevertheless, the economy is still oversold, which in the end the macro-control failure or otherwise scruples Renmin University of China, vice president of LiuYuanChun told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, monetary policy in the beginning of the quarter to four in the third quarter last year received relatively tight monetary policy last November had been relaxed, but the policy lag effect is generally to more than a quarter. He said that the situation seen in the first quarter of the actual effect of the third quarter of last year or so policies overweight, which is the lag effect of full-blown point.
The first quarter of economic decline is structural, cyclical, external factors and policy factors. "Zhu Baoliang, the negative impact of foreign demand and brought to the inventory cycle is the direct cause, but it should be noted, China's population The bonus has ended, the labor-intensive industries are mired in cost pressures, the economic structure of the Chinese economy of low inflation, high growth into the depth adjustment.
/ Countermeasures /
Fine-tuning gradually advance: small micro-enterprise is hoping a new growth point
Gradually clear the face of the economic growth rate downstream of the "gray tone", the spotlight of the macro-economic control, point to the pre-regulation and fine-tuning. This fine-tuning had begun as early as the end of last year.
Central Economic Work Conference in December last year, the Central Committee for the 2012 economic work set the main tone of "progress while maintaining stability", proposed to maintain the basic stability of the macroeconomic policies to maintain stable and rapid economic development.
Some analysts pointed out that the economic macro-control process, step by step in a moderately relaxed environment to enhance the development of these economic progress while maintaining stability, expanding domestic demand the main tone of the same strain, it should.
Of the State Council Information Office press conference on April 25, party members, chief engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said Zhu Hong, still need attention, the economy is facing downward pressure is on strengthening the pre-tune and fine-tuning a series of related measures greater focus on expanding domestic demand. In addition, the fine-tuning of monetary policy also occurred in the expected crescendo subtle changes follow.
If the implementation of orientation and loose monetary policy, the biggest beneficiary is undoubtedly a small micro-enterprise. Yesterday (April 26), the State Council issued State Council to further support the healthy development of small micro-enterprises also stressed that, in addition to give the various taxes and fees support, encourage and guide the small and micro enterprises to enter the education, social welfare, science and technology, the fields of culture, tourism, sports, business and trade circulation.
Well-known economist, David recently said, "This year China will impose targeted easing will be manufacturing, services and small business support, the bank deposit reserve ratio will be one of the tools of policy fine-tuning," he also believes that China will not like during the financial crisis once again as large-scale stimulus.
Small micro-enterprise in this year continue to usher in a policy of "Spring Breeze". Central bank position in the flexible adjustment of the banking system liquidity, there would be timely to increase the reverse repo operations, cut the deposit and the prospective rate, the central counting due to the release of liquidity, such as a steady increase in the supply of liquidity. In particular, support for small micro-enterprises, the "rural" and there are capital needs of financial institutions, will promptly provide liquidity support.
The real estate has also become one of the beneficiaries. Recently, two rumors about the regulation of real estate has caused market concern: First, there is news recently, including the building housing the Department and other relevant departments are studying a new round of stimulus just need to enter the market policy reserves; At present, more than one The third-tier cities began to relax accumulation fund extraction and lending policies, the first suite of policies tend to become more clear.
This joint hearing the text of the National Day of Securities chief economist of the "Daily Economic News" reporter "real estate-related policies have not made it clear to relax, but the actual structural relaxation, this relaxed efforts is more appropriate, is a 'moisturizes things in silence' quietly relax. ", National Day is expected to half of the real estate investment will rebound in the second quarter.
The Zhongping investment research report shows that a quarter of credit is substantial growth and mobility of a certain release. The data show that the end of March, the balance of RMB loans was 57.25 trillion yuan, up 15.7 percent over the previous month by 0.5 percentage points. The first quarter of RMB loans increased 2.46 trillion yuan, up by more than 217 billion yuan. The author of the report I believe that strong, "in order to curb the economic downturn, monetary policy is likely to slightly loose."
Monetary policy stable and loose ", the trend has been" Wenzhongqiujin "clear understanding. Position, according to central bank of its intention to shrink the return of scale in order to protect the banking system liquidity easing.
Financial innovation and financial reform in Wenzhou and Shenzhen, Shanghai and other places frequently "punch" is an important part of China's financial reform, and also to resolve the financing of SMEs and brings the dawn. Mo Zhang Nan, the State Information Center, Economic Forecast Department of the World Economic Research Research Associate, said, "From the first quarter of this year, the banking sector loans of over one trillion yuan, in fact, the incremental part of the main relaxation is concentrated in the direction of the SME loan, the original accounting for relatively large new projects, local financing platform as well as real estate loans are experiencing negative growth. "she said," From the view directional loose monetary policy pre-and micro adjustments, or, still mainly for the financing of SMEs and financing costs. other Wenzhou financial reform is not only to solve the dual structure of the monetary system or financial repression as a whole, also contributed to the inflow of private capital to the real economy, reflecting the country in supporting SMEs, large to the determination of the real economy regression.
/ / Foreground
"Gray" fade: the second quarter of economic spring
Economic growth has been approaching the bottom of the cycle, macro general trend of the second quarter, whether by external demand to improve, and to bring policy Dongfeng turned down as up, is still an open question.
May 1, just around the corner, the first official economic data in April - PMI will soon emerge, the early release of April HSBC PMI preview value rose to 49.1 percent, rose by 0.8 percentage points over the previous value, and get rid of three months to the lowest bit.
Gao Hua Securities commented that in view of the policy easing and external demand growth is expected to stabilize the real economy, growth may occur in the next few months the upward trend. April official PMI index, such as HSBC data increased by about 1 percentage point.
A quarter of the economic data rate of decline is unexpected and even negative growth of the individual indices for many years now, but before March of PMI all the way rising, and the amplitude is expanded: January PMI was 50.5 % in February to 51.0 percent in March PMI jumped 53.1 percent, the chain greatly increased by 2.1 percentage points.
LiuYuanChun told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, the PMI index and the industrial added value is synchronized, but after constantly adjusted, the leading indicator of the increasingly important role to play an important role, the PMI index bottomed out early in the fourth quarter of last year, is also reflected in the first quarter of this year, a significant decline in the economic growth. He said the April PMI in export orders, domestic orders and production index is expected also to maintain the upward trend in the second quarter the economy is also expected to stop the consecutive months of decline of the situation, it is estimated that GDP growth rose to 8.3 percent.
"Troika" pull uplink
UBS Securities report, also holds the same view with LiuYuanChun that the economy has been released to stabilize and improve the initial signal, such as the export chain growth has picked up, the PMI new orders rising, business confidence has also been enhanced. In addition, as strong March new bank loan data reflected in the policy easing may have begun. Therefore, it is expected that the credit easing driven rebound in fixed investment in the second quarter GDP growth rose to 8.5% will be driven by the protection of housing and infrastructure next time.
Standing point of view of the "Troika", the desire to invest first "Jiujia economy into a pattern. Accordance with the planning of the Ministry of Railways, the arrangement in 2012, investment in fixed assets amount to 500 billion yuan, of which the capital investment of 400 billion yuan, rolling stock and the purchase of 86 billion yuan, was originally a large area of lay-off projects, many intend to return to work.
Tang Jianwei, macro-analyst, that, by the funding sources of tension and seasonal factors, a quarter of railway investment in fixed assets dropped significantly, transportation fixed assets also fell significantly due to shrinking investment in highway construction is expected in the second quarter as the sources of funding to improve and the operating rate rose , the decline is likely to shrink. He said that in order to prevent the expansion of economic downside risks, as well as to promote the upgrading of the substantial Huimin Limin project, the Government may gradually increase in water systems and irrigation projects, environmental projects, urban infrastructure, schools and hospitals, rail traffic, circulation system construction and other aspects of the investment.
Exports and final consumption there are some new support policy. Issued by the Commerce Department April 26, "foreign trade" 12th Five-Year Plan "that the export tax rebate is to maintain the basic stability of the trade finance and export credit insurance and foreign trade policy, stabilization policy is expected to enhance business confidence. Regulate foreign trade order, protecting the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises. Further improve the clearance and settlement environment to strengthen the supervision of import and export charges, cleaning and the phasing out of import and export of unreasonable restrictions.
The beginning of this year, more than 700 kinds of imported goods tariff officially lowered, which contains a lot of consumer goods, According to the "Daily Economic News" reporter to understand the flow of work conference will be devoted to focusing an excessive burden of the distribution industry, commodity price problem, and stimulus plans are in full swing to develop new consumer furniture and energy-saving products.
Change behind focusing on transition
National Bureau of Statistics, Deputy Director Wang Wenbo look at data from the first quarter, industry data, investment and foreign trade improved, comprehensive view, the trend of the second quarter is going up. The risk of economic decline is generally controlled, annual economic rebound slightly in the first quarter based on the stable.
To monitor the operation of the Coordinating Bureau of the Ministry of monitoring the Director Xie Sanming, said a quarter of the industrial added value 11.6% growth rate in the normal range, but also a more appropriate speed, "It now appears that the first quarter may be the bottoms of the two quarter will slow growth. "
Han-sub, president of China Investment Association has warned that due to the lagged effects of monetary policy, from the money put into the purchase of raw materials, equipment installation, the project started to take some time, only investments not have to wait for the main projects were implemented, so that even infrastructure investment rebounded in the second quarter economic clunker.
Zhu Baoliang judge said the second quarter is the real bottom of the current round Apple Keyboard of cyclical economic decline, GDP growth is expected to only 8%. In his view, to the inventory cycle will still be continued in the second quarter, and will offset a certain amount of policy stimulus to the third quarter when the economy can make a real difference improvement.
Policy efforts will also be important factors affect the rebound height. Although many parts of the eastern coast of the first quarter of economic growth has been broken "8" and approaching 7%, but the reaction of these areas is still the demand is greater than the pursuit of speed of transformation. Relevant person in charge of Zhejiang Province in the first quarter of 7.1% economic growth in the Review of the province and said that, the Hero, not the speed, even in this growth, but also more and strive to restructuring, optimizing the economic structure and industrial structure.
LiuYuanChun believe that this year's overall economic softening will not appear similar to the four trillion as stimulus, but still pre-tune fine-tuning based, so the rebound will not be much. He analyzed that the past high inflation of the stimulus "hangover" is obvious, the decision-makers tend to believe that market self-regulation and self-repair, and about 8 percent economic growth not only within the controllable range, there is no hard landing risk, but also slightly higher than the GDP growth target this year, the economic downturn itself will create more space for the reform and structural adjustment, which decision-makers are glad to see.
Wang said that China is now the big question is fully excess capacity, which is the essential reason to suppress investment demand falling. The downward trend of the Chinese economy will not change the second and third quarter, while economic growth may still be above 8%, but it is difficult to exceed 8.5 percent rebound of the individual data can only be the curve of the economic downturn is not linear, but broken line.
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