People's Bank of China recently released data show that the

People's Bank of China recently released data show that the end of March, China's foreign exchange for 256,493.92 billion, of which the month added 124.6 billion yuan.

This is the foreign exchange following the low growth of 25.115 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of last year negative growth in February this year, once again bounce back.

Import and export, FDI turn for the better

January this year, foreign exchange had a rebound in growth of 140.9 billion yuan. February, due to the import and export of $ 31.4 billion trade deficit affect the monthly foreign exchange growth again shrunk to 25.1 billion yuan.

Retrospect, SW, chief macro-researcher, pointed out that the most important foreign trade data from the February deficit into a surplus in March.

The Institute of International Finance, senior analyst Zhou Jingtong pointed out that the growth rate increased foreign exchange, on the one hand, from better than expected growth in trade; the other hand, FDI inflows in March than in February increased, as well as by the RMB exchange rate in March, showing the situation steadily, causing the foreign capital inflows explained.

According to Chinese customs statistics, China's March trade surplus of $ 5.35 billion, reversing a deficit of $ 31.48 billion in February, the situation is much higher than the market had expected China's March trade deficit of $ 3.2 billion level.

In addition, according to Commerce Department statistics, in the month of March, the actual use of foreign capital of $ 11.757 billion, compared with $ 7.726 billion in February, has increased.

Drop prospective primary hedging instruments

It is estimated that the first quarter of this year, foreign exchange increased by 290.6 billion, the average monthly increase of less than 100 billion yuan. Before the fourth quarter of last year, foreign exchange monthly average growth of more than 300 billion.

In this regard, the CICC has pointed out that foreign exchange slowdown will force the central bank to change the usual pattern of money supply in 2012 will repeatedly cut the deposit and the prospective rate hedging.

Estimated that nearly 20% reserve ratio, compared to previous years, 200 billion in foreign exchange gap, in theory, will bring a month 1 trillion of liquidity decline of the central bank each down 0.5 percentage points deposit, precision, and will release 400 billion of liquidity.

In this regard, Retrospect that the decline in foreign exchange, resulting in monetary passive contraction, resulting in the money supply is no guarantee that the economy needs, or lowered reserve ratio three times around to ensure the normal supply of the currency.

"This data is more good, so this data will alleviate a funds tight to worry about." He said.

Zhou Jingtong expected full-year drop prospective least two more times.

Widely expected, 4 June there will be a drop prospective, but the current situation, market liquidity is not particularly a shortage of down quasi may be postponed, "said Zhou Jingtong.

The annual scale of 1.8 trillion

For the year scale of foreign exchange, Retrospect is expected to grow at around 1.8 trillion, an increase in the second half of the year will be higher than the first half.

Zhou Jingtong this that, recently, the RMB exchange rate floating range amplification of the reform will affect the expectations of the RMB exchange rate, so the monthly increase in the volatility of foreign exchange this year than in previous years.

"The role of self-amplification is expected not only affect the actual capital outflow and flows into, and also affects the willingness of enterprises and individuals to exchange settlement and sales to commercial banks, further affecting the willingness of commercial banks to the central bank exchange settlement will enlarge foreign exchange fluctuations. Zhou Jingtong told reporters.

At present, the mobility gap of the Apple Keyboard hedge, the central bank mainly use two tools, the reserve ratio and open market operations.

Retrospect believe that, in addition to changes in reserve ratio for foreign exchange caused by the change in the pattern of money supply and no large-scale use of open market operations.

"Open market operations is a conventional tool, small volume, the effect is not as good as the reserve ratio obvious," he said, "Of course, the deadline, you can do a better match by lowered the reserve ratio at the same time, supplemented by open market operations. "